FootBiz newsletter #114: Should we rethink World Cup qualification?
PLUS: PL spending rules get closer, Ares eye next football investment
International break is over, but this one was at least productive.
October’s pause from domestic activity gave us eight more teams for the line-up of World Cup 2026, taking us to 28 in total including the trio of hosts.
Africa’s first round of qualifiers wrapped up during this window and all of the group winners gained automatic passage to next summer’s global footballing jamboree. Morocco and Tunisia had punched their tickets in September but now they are joined by traditional heavyweights Algeria, Ghana and Senegal.
The Ivory Coast has an incredibly strong squad but has only previously qualified once, making it harder to designate them as a traditional heavyweight but they’ll surprise some people next summer. South Africa are back for the first time since they hosted the competition in 2010. Egypt, the most successful AFCON team with a mind-blowingly bad World Cup qualification record have also booked their tickets but the story of African qualifying was Cape Verde, who will make their first World Cup finals appearance. Nick Miller was on the ground if you’re after some more colour.
Cape Verde’s qualification is a first for the tiny island nation
Saudi Arabia and Iraq played a winner-takes-all fixture in Riyadh for the chance to qualify, but a 0-0 meant the Saudis sealed qualification because they scored more goals against Indonesia.
Meanwhile, Qatar went to the United Arab Emirates needing a win (with a draw enough for the hosts) and got the win they needed — much to the disgust of the locals in a politically charged tie.
England became UEFA’s first qualifier after securing their sixth win in six games, with a record of 18 goals scored and none conceded.
With greed dictating that major tournaments will continue to get bigger with more teams and more games, the challenge of making qualifying more interesting is something that is apparently on the mind of UEFA, as exemplified by England’s stroll through their group.
The Sunday Times reports that European football’s governing body is concerned that the current cakewalk enjoyed by the major nations is leading to lack of interest from fans and broadcasters. You can decide which is more of a concern.
A working group has already been set up to analyse how “to find the right formula that keeps some jeopardy for the big nations and is competitive but gives smaller teams opportunities, too.”
England breezed through qualification again, something UEFA could address
Mimicking the Champions League’s ‘Swiss Format’ could be on the cards, where instead of dividing teams into groups of four or five, one large league phase would see teams drawn randomly against a couple of teams from each pot.
The balance that UEFA needs to strike is keeping things interesting (notionally having some games between bigger nations) while not damaging their chances of qualification. You also need to maintain money-spinning fixtures between the smaller nations and the elite, as simply separating those pots of teams would have a significant effect on revenues for the likes of Andorra, San Marino and Luxembourg.
It’s an interesting puzzle. We’ll be following this one closely.
As for the rest of the World Cup qualifiers, we’ll have a glut of teams confirmed during the November break around a month from now, including some winner-takes-all games between Denmark and Scotland, Switzerland and Kosovo, Turkey and Spain, France and Ukraine, Netherlands and Poland as well as Croatia vs Czechia.
Iraq and UAE will play a two-legged tie next month to decide one Asian qualifier, while Nigeria, Gabon, Cameroon and DR Congo face a four-team tournament that sends one African team to the inter-continental playoffs next March.
CONCACAF will also put three teams in ink during the November break, though it’s too tight to tell who they’ll be.
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